Summary
In 2025, despite the significant tariff increases imposed by the US on China, Chinese exports are expected to grow 5.0% for the full year (in US dollar terms), demonstrating resilience beyond market expectations. The main drivers come from: industrialisation in emerging markets boosting demand for industrial goods and intermediate products; economies such as ASEAN that have taken over industrial production rely on China for key intermediate and capital goods; and the global AI computing power investment expansion driving exports of power equipment and data centre products. By market, exports to the US may see a narrowing decline due to a potential temporary easing of tariff tensions and accommodative US policies; non-US markets (ASEAN, Latin America, EU, Africa) remain the main support but growth may decline due to high base effects and trade barriers.
Export growth is expected to ease to 4% in 2026, but the export share is likely to rise from 14.6% in 2024 to 15.5%. Risks include escalation of the China-US tariff war and uncertainty in the global trade environment.
Commentary
This report provides a macro perspective for New Zealand's SME owners: China's export structure is upgrading from low-end consumer goods to mid-to-high-end intermediate and capital goods, which presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses reliant on exporting raw materials or primary products to China. On one hand, if your business involves exporting agricultural products such as dairy, meat, or fruit to China, note that the increased demand for intermediate goods in China may indirectly boost upstream sectors like packaging and processing equipment, but competition in direct consumer exports will intensify. On the other hand, the spillover of China's industrial chain to ASEAN, Latin America, etc., may shift some intermediate goods production and reduce dependence on Chinese raw materials?
However, the report points out that these regions still rely on China's key intermediate goods, so New Zealand's primary products (such as timber, wool) as part of China's processing chain may face a shift in demand structure. Additionally, new regulations like the EU's carbon tariff may affect China's exports to the EU, thereby changing global supply chain layouts, and New Zealand businesses could assess alternative market opportunities. Overall, behind China's export resilience is industrial chain upgrading; New Zealand businesses should focus on their product positioning within intermediate and capital goods, avoid being eliminated by low-end competition, and strive to integrate into China's high-end manufacturing or service chains.
Keywords: Chinese exports, resilience, 2026, tariffs, emerging markets, intermediate goods, capital goods, export share, industrial chain restructuring, China-US trade war
Summary in Chinese | 摘要
2025年，在美国对华大幅加征关税的冲击下，中国出口预计全年增长5.0%（按美元计价），展现超市场预期的韧性。主要动力来自：新兴市场工业化带动工业品和中间品需求；东盟等承接产业转移经济体依赖中国关键中间品和资本品；全球AI算力投资扩张带动电力设备和数据中心产品出口。分市场看，对美出口因关税战可能阶段性缓和及美国宽松政策，降幅有望收窄；非美市场（东盟、拉美、欧盟、非洲）仍为主要支撑，但增速因高基数、贸易壁垒等因素可能回落。
2026年出口增速预计回落至4%，但出口份额有望从2024年的14.6%提升至15.5%。风险包括中美关税战升级、全球贸易环境不确定性。
Commentary in Chinese | 评论
这篇报告为新西兰中小企业主提供了一个宏观视角：中国出口结构正从低端消费品向中高端中间品和资本品升级，这对依赖对华出口原材料或初级产品的企业意味着机遇与挑战并存。一方面，若您的业务涉及向中国出口乳制品、肉类、水果等农产品，需关注中国对中间品需求增长可能间接拉动包装、加工设备等上游产业，但直接消费品出口竞争加剧。另一方面，中国产业链外溢至东盟、拉美等地，可能导致部分中间品转移，减少对中国原材料的依赖？
但报告指出这些地区仍依赖中国关键中间品，因此新西兰的初级产品（如木材、羊毛）作为中国加工链条的一环，可能面临需求结构调整。此外，欧盟碳关税等新规可能影响中国对欧出口，进而改变全球供应链布局，新西兰企业可评估替代性市场机会。总体而言，中国出口韧性背后是产业链升级，新西兰企业应关注自身产品在中间品和资本品中的定位，避免被低端竞争淘汰，争取融入中国的高端制造或服务链条。
关键词: 中国出口, 韧性, 2026年, 关税, 新兴市场, 中间品, 资本品, 出口份额, 产业链重构, 中美贸易战
Source: Tencent News
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