Summary
China’s timber imports fell by 28.7% in February 2026 compared to the previous year, with New Zealand log exports to China declining by 30.4%. The sharp drop reflects ongoing weakness in China’s construction and real estate sectors, which are the primary consumers of imported raw timber.
The decline is particularly significant for New Zealand, which relies on China as its largest market for radiata pine logs. The forestry sector is facing one of its most challenging periods as Chinese demand remains subdued amid property market adjustments.
Summary in Chinese
2026年2月中国木材进口同比下降28.7%，新西兰对华原木出口下降30.4%。急剧下降反映了中国建筑和房地产行业的持续疲软，这些行业是进口原木的主要消费者。
这一下降对新西兰尤为重要，因为新西兰依赖中国作为其辐射松原木的最大市场。由于房地产市场调整期间中国需求持续低迷，林业部门正面临最具挑战性的时期之一。
Comment
The 30.4% decline in New Zealand log exports to China is a stark indicator of structural weakness in China’s property sector, which consumes approximately 70% of imported raw timber. This is not a cyclical downturn that will quickly reverse — China’s real estate sector is undergoing a fundamental deleveraging that will suppress construction activity for several years.
For New Zealand forestry, the immediate challenge is cash flow. Many forest owners planted during the 1990s boom are now facing harvest decisions with log prices at multi-year lows. The risk of a supply glut compounding weak demand is real: if multiple owners rush to harvest before prices fall further, the resulting oversupply could depress prices for an extended period.
Longer-term, New Zealand forestry needs to diversify both markets and products. The current reliance on China for unprocessed logs is strategically vulnerable. Investment in domestic processing capacity — producing engineered wood products, cross-laminated timber, and biofuels — would reduce exposure to Chinese construction cycles while capturing more value from each harvested tree. Government support for processing infrastructure should be a priority in the upcoming budget cycle.
Comment in Chinese
新西兰对华原木出口下降30.4%，是中国房地产行业结构性疲软的鲜明指标，该行业消耗了约70%的进口原木。这不是会迅速逆转的周期性衰退——中国房地产行业正在经历根本性的去杠杆化，将在未来几年抑制建筑活动。
对新西兰林业而言，直接挑战是现金流。许多在1990年代繁荣时期种植的林主现在面临收获决策，原木价格处于多年低点。供应过剩加剧需求疲软的风险是真实的：如果多个林主急于在价格进一步下跌前收获，由此产生的供应过剩可能会长期压低价格。
从长远来看，新西兰林业需要实现市场和产品的多元化。目前对中国未加工原木的依赖具有战略脆弱性。投资国内加工能力——生产工程木制品、交叉层压木材和生物燃料——将减少对中国建筑周期的敞口，同时从每棵收获的树木中获取更多价值。政府支持加工基础设施应成为即将到来的预算周期的优先事项。
Source: Orsiad
Photo: David Kovalenko via Unsplash
Disclaimer: This article is compiled from publicly available news sources for informational purposes only. The views expressed in the commentary section are analytical opinions and do not constitute investment or business advice. Readers should verify information independently before making decisions.
免责声明：本文仅供信息参考，不构成投资或商业建议。评论部分为分析性观点，读者应在做出决策前独立核实信息。