Summary
On 12 May 2026, Chinese Ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong attended and addressed the New Zealand International Business Forum (NZIBF) luncheon at the Wellington Club. Ambassador Wang expressed high appreciation for NZIBF's long-standing efforts in promoting New Zealand's openness and international trade and economic cooperation, and thanked business leaders for their contributions to China-New Zealand economic and trade relations. Citing President Xi Jinping, he noted the world is undergoing unprecedented changes unseen in a century, with rising uncertainty in global economic growth, geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, and resurgent unilateralism and trade protectionism, all of which severely impact the international trade order and increase business costs and risks.
He emphasised that a rules-based multilateral trading system serves the common interests of all nations and that China firmly upholds free trade, abides by WTO rules, and opposes actions that undermine the multilateral system. To New Zealand exporters and industry representatives, he outlined the 'China Approach' – the stability and potential of China's economy. He stated that China's economy is characterised by a solid foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential, with its long-term positive trend unchanged; average annual growth was around 6.11% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and GDP surpassed RMB 140 trillion for the first time in 2025, with annual increments equivalent to the size of a medium-sized economy.
In Q1 2026, GDP grew by about 5% year-on-year and 6.10% quarter-on-quarter; goods imports and exports rose 15%, with imports up 19.6%, demonstrating strong resilience and endogenous momentum. He detailed the vast potential of China's market: over 1.4 billion people, with the middle-income group exceeding 800 million in the next decade; total retail sales of consumer goods surpassed RMB 50 trillion in 2025, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth and service consumption accounting for 46.1% of per capita consumer spending; the recent May Day holiday saw over 1.5 billion inter-regional trips, with diverse business forms stimulating consumption. He also introduced the core directions of the 15th Five-Year Plan: innovation-driven development – China's R&D investment is approaching RMB 4 trillion, about 2.8% of GDP; the value added of core digital economy industries rose from 7.8% of GDP in 2020 to over 10.5% in 2025, exceeding RMB 14.7 trillion, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like AI and integrated circuits; and green development – upholding the concept that 'lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets', China has sustained an average annual economic growth of 6.1% since 2012 with an average energy consumption growth of 3.4%, while carbon emission intensity has dropped by over 35%.
China is building the world's largest renewable energy system, with wind, solar, and new energy vehicles aiding global green transition. The address aimed to boost confidence among New Zealand's business community in China's economy, emphasising that through collaboration, stability and certainty can be found in an uncertain world, injecting new momentum into bilateral economic and trade ties. No specific industry tariffs or market access changes were mentioned, but the overall message conveyed China's continued market opening and commitment to deepening economic and trade cooperation with New Zealand.
Commentary
From the perspective of a New Zealand small-to-medium enterprise owner, Ambassador Wang Xiaolong's address provides an important window into understanding the future direction of China, New Zealand's largest trading partner. The most directly positive signal is the ongoing expansion and upgrade of China's consumer market. The data presented – total retail sales of consumer goods exceeding RMB 50 trillion, service consumption nearly half, and the middle-income group set to surpass 800 million – not only show immense scale but also indicate a shift in consumption patterns from goods to services and from basic needs to quality.
For New Zealand exporters, traditional strengths such as high-quality agricultural products and food (dairy, meat, fruit, wine) are well positioned to benefit from China's consumption upgrade. In particular, the rising share of service consumption opens greater space for New Zealand's service exports such as education, tourism, and healthcare. For instance, the recent May Day holiday saw 1.5 billion inter-regional trips spurring diverse business forms directly linked to import demand in tourism, dining, and retail – where New Zealand's clean, premium image can find precise entry points.
Second, the two priority areas of innovation-driven and green development also present new opportunities for New Zealand businesses. The rapid expansion of China's digital economy and the focus on AI and integrated circuits may create demand for New Zealand's tech services, R&D collaboration, and high-end manufacturing components; while China's construction of the world's largest renewable energy system offers potential cooperation in clean energy technology, carbon emissions solutions, and low-carbon certification for agricultural products. On the other hand, the repeated references to global uncertainties – geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions, resurgent unilateralism and protectionism – serve as a caution.
The current trend of fragmentation in the international trade environment may lead to increased non-tariff barriers, volatility in logistics costs, and sudden policy shifts. For New Zealand SMEs reliant on long-term contracts and stable supply chains, this implies a need for more cautious risk management and avoidance of over-reliance on a single market or channel. Moreover, while China emphasises upholding the multilateral trading system, real-world geopolitical frictions could still indirectly affect the bilateral trade environment, such as trade diversion effects or shipping blockades caused by third-party factors.
Additionally, the address did not mention specific trade facilitation measures, tariff adjustments, or industry access breakthroughs, so substantive policy dividends may be limited in the short term, requiring patience and continued market investment. Overall, Ambassador Wang's speech paints a picture of a dynamic and opportunity-rich Chinese market, but also reminds New Zealand businesses that in the midst of global upheaval, cooperation and risk coexist. For operators, this means seizing the long-term trends of China's consumption upgrade and green transition, actively investing in branding, channels, and localisation, while also building diversified supply chains and market dispersion strategies to cope with potential volatility.
Going forward, if the two countries can deepen cooperation in areas such as digital trade and mutual recognition of low-carbon standards, new business growth points may emerge – but this process requires close monitoring of policy developments and flexible strategy adjustments.
Keywords: China, New Zealand, economic and trade cooperation, multilateral trade, Chinese economy, consumer market, innovation-driven development, green development, 15th Five-Year Plan, supply chain
Summary in Chinese | 摘要
2026年5月12日，中国驻新西兰大使王小龙在惠灵顿俱乐部出席新西兰国际商业论坛（NZIBF）午餐会并发表致辞。王小龙大使首先对NZIBF长期推动新西兰对外开放和国际经贸合作表示高度赞赏，并感谢各位商界领袖为促进中新经贸关系所作贡献。他援引习近平主席的论断，指出当前世界正经历百年未有之大变局，全球经济增长不确定性上升，地缘冲突、供应链扰动叠加，单边主义和贸易保护主义抬头，严重冲击国际经贸秩序，增加企业经营成本和风险。
面对这一变局，王大使强调，以规则为基础的多边贸易体制符合各国共同利益，中国坚定践行自由贸易理念，遵守世贸组织规则，反对破坏多边体制的做法。他向与会的新西兰出口企业和行业机构代表介绍了'中国方案'，即中国经济的稳健与潜力。他指出，中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好趋势未变；'十四五'期间年均经济增长约5.5%，2025年GDP首次突破140万亿元人民币，年增量相当于一个中等经济体规模。
2026年一季度GDP同比增长约5%，环比增长1.3%，货物进出口同比增长15%，其中进口增长19.6%，展现出强劲韧性与内生动力。王大使详细阐述了中国市场的巨大潜力：14亿多人口，未来十多年中等收入群体将超过8亿；2025年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，消费对经济增长贡献率达52%，服务性消费占居民人均消费支出的46.1%；刚刚过去的'五一'假期跨区域人员流动量超15亿人次，多元业态激发消费活力。他还介绍了《十五五规划纲要》的核心方向：一是创新驱动发展，目前中国研发投入接近4万亿元，占GDP比重约2.8%，数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重由2020年的7.8%升至2025年的10.5%以上，规模超过14.7万亿元，未来将聚焦人工智能、集成电路等战略性新兴产业；二是坚持绿色发展，践行'绿水青山就是金山银山'理念，2012年以来以年均3.4%的能耗增速支撑了年均6.1%的经济增长，碳排放强度下降超35%，中国正构建全球最大的可再生能源体系，风电、光伏、新能源汽车等助力全球绿色转型。
王大使的致辞旨在增强新西兰工商界对中国经济的信心，强调通过合作可以在不确定的世界中寻找稳定性与确定性，为中新经贸关系注入新动力。全文未提及具体行业关税或准入变化，但宏观传递了中方持续开放市场、深化与新西兰经贸合作的积极信号。
Commentary in Chinese | 评论
从新西兰中小企业主的角度来看，王小龙大使的致辞提供了理解中国这个最大贸易伙伴未来走向的重要窗口。首先，最直接的利好信号是中国消费市场的持续扩容和升级。致辞中提到的数据——社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元、服务消费占比近半、中等收入群体将超8亿——不仅规模惊人，更意味着消费结构正在从商品向服务、从基本需求向品质化转变。
对于新西兰出口商而言，传统优势产品如乳制品、肉类、水果、葡萄酒等高品质农产品和食品，正处于中国消费升级的受益赛道。尤其是服务性消费占比的提升，为新西兰的教育、旅游、康养等服务出口开辟了更大空间。以刚刚过去的中国'五一'假期为例，跨区域流动量15亿人次催生的多元业态，直接关联到旅游、餐饮、零售等领域的进口需求，新西兰纯净形象和高端定位可在其中找到精准切入点。
第二，创新驱动和绿色发展两大优先方向，对新西兰企业同样意味着新机遇。中国数字经济的快速扩张和人工智能、集成电路等领域的聚焦，可能为新西兰科技服务、研发合作、高端制造器件出口带来需求；而中国构建全球最大可再生能源体系，则为新西兰在清洁能源技术合作、碳排放解决方案以及农产品低碳认证方面提供了潜在合作点。但另一方面，致辞中反复提及的全球不确定性——地缘冲突、供应链扰动、单边主义和保护主义抬头——也警示着风险。
当前国际贸易环境的碎片化趋势，可能导致非关税壁垒增加、物流成本波动以及政策突然转向。对于依赖长期合同和稳定物流的新西兰中小企业，这意味着需要更审慎地管理供应链风险，避免过度依赖单一市场或渠道。同时，中国虽强调维护多边贸易体制，但现实中的地缘政治摩擦仍可能间接影响双边经贸环境，比如由第三方因素引发的贸易转移效应或航运封锁。
此外，致辞中未提及任何具体的贸易便利化措施、关税调整或行业准入突破，因此短期内实质性政策红利可能有限，企业需要更多耐心和持续的市场投入。综合来看，王小龙大使的讲话描绘了一个充满活力和机遇的中国市场，但也提醒新西兰企业，在全球大变局中，合作与风险并存。对于经营者，这意味着既要抓住中国消费升级和绿色转型的长期趋势，积极布局品牌、渠道和本地化服务，也要建立多元化的供应链和市场分散策略，以应对潜在波动。
未来，中新两国若能进一步在数字贸易、低碳标准互认等领域深化合作，或将创造出新的商业增长点，但这一过程需要企业密切关注政策动态并保持灵活的策略调整。
关键词: 中国, 新西兰, 经贸合作, 多边贸易, 中国经济, 消费市场, 创新驱动, 绿色发展, 十五五规划, 供应链
Source: Embassy of China in New Zealand – Bilateral Relations
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