China Infant Formula Registration Pressure Points to Industry Consolidation
Summary
China’s infant formula formula registration approvals have plummeted roughly 70% to just 80 products in the first half of 2026, down from 267 in the same period of 2025 and 257 in 2023, as the industry transitions from aggressive new product launches to internal consolidation amid a shrinking birth cohort and channel inventory pressures. Average selling prices have risen 8-25%, with mainstream new-standard products now trading around 270 yuan per can, reflecting a deliberate price rehabilitation by leading brands to restore margins. Industry analysts warn that the market is entering a phase where weak R&D players and smaller brands face existential pressure, with concentration accelerating towards vertically integrated, innovation-capable leaders.
Summary in Chinese
中国婴配粉配方注册获批数量在2026年上半年骤降约70%至仅80个产品，远低于2025年同期的267个和2023年的257个，行业在新生儿减少和渠道库存压力下从激进推新转向内部整合。平均售价上涨8-25%，主流新国标产品终端成交价上移至约270元/罐，反映了头部品牌为修复利润空间而进行的主动提价。行业分析师警告，研发薄弱的中小品牌面临生存红线，市场份额将加速向具备全产业链能力和创新力的头部企业集中。
Comment
The dramatic contraction in formula registrations signals that China’s infant nutrition market is becoming a fortress controlled by well-capitalised, RUC-intensive operators — raising the barrier to entry significantly. New Zealand dairy companies supplying ingredients or finished formula must recognise that the era of launching multiple SKUs to test the market is effectively over; every registration application now demands rigorous scientific substantiation and long lead times of 18-24 months. Simultaneously, the price recovery trend is relevant for NZ exporters: as Chinese brands restore margins through premiumisation, demand for high-value NZ-origin ingredients — specialised milk powders, lactoferrin, colostrum — is likely to strengthen, since these inputs are essential to justifying premium positioning.
Comment in Chinese
配方注册数量的急剧收缩表明，中国婴幼儿营养市场正成为由资本充足、研发密集型运营商主导的堡垒，准入门槛显著提高。供应原料或成品婴配粉的新西兰乳企必须认识到，通过推出多个SKU来试探市场的时代已基本结束；如今每一次注册申请都需要严谨的科学论证和18-24个月的漫长周期。同时，价格修复趋势对新西兰出口商具有现实意义：随着中国品牌通过高端化恢复利润空间，对高价值新西兰原产原料——专业奶粉、乳铁蛋白、初乳——的需求可能增强，因为这些原料是支撑高端定位的关键。