Danone Still Backs Premium Infant Formula Demand in China

Photo by Casey Lee on Unsplash

Summary

Danone’s CEO has reaffirmed the company’s confidence in China’s premium infant formula market, noting that despite annual births falling from 14 million to around 8 million over the past decade, the market has maintained its roughly 20 billion euro scale due to the premiumisation trend driven by single-child families. Nielsen IQ data shows that super-premium and premium segments now account for nearly 65% of the market, while Danone reported 13.2% growth in its China-facing specialised nutrition business in 2025. The CEO highlighted that China’s top three players hold only about 50% market share, compared with over 70% in most countries, indicating further consolidation ahead.

Summary in Chinese

达能CEO重申对中国婴配粉高端化市场的信心，指出尽管过去十年新生儿数量从1400万降至约800万，但在独生子女家庭推动的高端化趋势下，市场规模仍维持在约200亿欧元。尼尔森IQ数据显示超高端和高端细分市场合计占比近65%，达能2025年中国专业特殊营养业务同比增长13.2%。CEO强调中国前三大企业市场份额合计约50%，远低于大多数国家的70%以上，预示行业将进一步整合。

Comment

Danone’s strategic bet on premiumisation — and its validation through double-digit growth — confirms that the infant formula opportunity in China is squarely at the quality end, not the volume end. For New Zealand-based formula manufacturers and dairy ingredient suppliers, this reinforces the value of investing in clinical research partnerships, novel ingredient development such as HMOs and A2 protein, and brand positioning that communicates scientific credibility. The relatively low market concentration also means there is still window for well-differentiated mid-premium and premium entrants, particularly those with a compelling origin story and transparent supply chain — attributes where New Zealand producers have a natural advantage.

Comment in Chinese

达能对高端化的战略押注及其通过双位数增长获得的市场验证，确认了中国婴配粉的机会集中在品质端而非数量端。对于新西兰本土的婴配粉制造商和乳制品原料供应商而言，这进一步强化了投资临床研究合作、开发新型成分（如HMO和A2蛋白）以及传达科学可信度的品牌定位的价值。相对较低的市场集中度也意味着，具有差异化优势的中高端和高端新进入者仍有窗口期，尤其是那些拥有引人入胜的原产地故事和透明供应链的品牌——这些正是新西兰生产商的天然优势所在。